Israel/US vs Palestine & The Middle East

Israel/US vs Palestine & The Middle East

COMMENT BY LARRY ROSS, October 25, 2003

Both Israel and US are the only nuclear powers in the Mid-East. Israel is stealing land from Palestine, building Israeli settlements and huge walls through the middle of the stolen land in defiance of many UN resolutions and assassinating people they label as "terrorists". They have reached out and bombed well within Syria, on the grounds of "attacking terrorists or terrorist camps". This is with US approval. Bush echoed the Sharon line, even though no so-called terrorists were found. The US also showed its support for these flagrant violations of international law and the UN Charter, by blocking a UN Security Council resolution condemn Israel, which was later passed by the UN General Assembly. Another bombing could start a new war. The US has warned Iran, Syria and even its ally, Saudi Arabia. It has made various accusations to them of sponsoring terrorism and making, or preparing to make or buy, nuclear weapons. Under US new stated nuclear doctrines (See NPR under NUCLEAR WEAPONS) the US, and Israel, reserve to themselves the right to name any other state they may choose, claim they are preparing to make, or buy nuclear weapons, and launch a pre-emptive attack against them using any weapons they may choose depending on the resistance they meet.. Thus we have two of the most powerful nuclear weapon states, revealing yet again, that they are rogue regimes, ready to attack anyone they wish, under any pretext.

It becomes more clear everyday, that Israel is set on expanding into Palestine territory, and perhaps further, to create a larger Israel state. The US is inventing excuses and creating lies to justify war, as in Iraq as a first step after their war in Afghanistan,
They have stated plans for further ME wars in their effort to expand the US Empire, including control of ME oil. Their so-called "wars on terrorism " and their generation of fears that other states may possess, or simply be accused of possessing, nuclear weapons are the excuses the US and Israel have created to justify attack and conquest. Its a matter of doing as they please, attacking who they please. They ignore any possible disasterous consequences, and any domestic or international protest.
They will not allow any other ME state to become a nuclear weapon state in the vain attempt to defend itself.
However they claim a right that they alone in the ME may possess nuclear weapons, even though Israel has never officially admitted it has nuclear weapons. Both states are busily perfecting and presumably adding to their nuclear arsenals.
The following article illustrates what may be Saudi attempts to acquire a nuclear defence against both Israel and the US.

However I anticipate that both states will wait to see that the Saudis are actually acquiring nuclear weapons, and the time is closer to the US election in Nov 2004. Bush likely hopes that a new war will assure him an electoral win and provide an excuse to silence his critics as the US beats the drums of war again. A major terrorist attack on the US could also be used to justify US and Israeli war plans. In the same way the 9/ll attack on the twin towers in Sept,2001 was used to justify all kinds of war steps that had nothing to do with fighting terrorism, and justifying the war on Iraq although Iraq and Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with it or Al Qaeda. 15 of the 19 hi-jackers were Saudis. This may used later, as one of the excuses for war with Saudi Arabia.

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India/Pakistan/Saudia

WASHINGTON: Saudi Arabia is pressing forward with a secret programme to acquire nuclear-weapons technology from Pakistan, a senior general of the Israeli Army was quoted as saying by the Washington Times.

Major General Aharon Zeevi, the Israel Defence Force's senior intelligence officer, was reported by Israeli Radio and the New York Post as telling a parliamentary committee that that the Saudis had in fact gone to Islamabad with the intention of buying
Pakistani warheads, to be placed on Saudi land-based missiles.

Iran's advanced nuclear programme had motivated the Saudi drive for atomic weapons, General Zeevi had claimed. Saudi Arabia is predominantly Sunni Muslim while Iran has a Shi'ite Muslim majority.

Citing a senior Pakistani source, The Washington Times claimed that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince, Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, the country's de facto ruler, had concluded a long-rumored deal to obtain a nuclear deterrent in exchange for discounted Saudi
oil during a visit to Islamabad over the weekend.

However, when the paper sought clarifications on this development from senior Bush Administration officials on Wednesday, they said they had seen "no information to substantiate" reports that a deal was in the works.

The Washington Times, quoting the source, said that such a deal would profoundly alter the balance of power in the Middle East, violate Saudi obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and break promises made to Washington by Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf about controlling his country's nuclear arsenal.

Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have strenuously denied the reports, with a Saudi Embassy spokesman dismissing the story on Wednesday as "not even worth a denial."

Talat Waseem, press counselor to the Pakistani Embassy, was quoted as saying in a letter to The Times there was "not a shred of truth" to the "wildly speculative story."

He also denied the issue had been raised by President Bush or senior U.S. diplomats in their recent meetings with Pakistani leaders.

"While US-Pakistan discussions cover a whole range of issues, including nonproliferation issues, nonproliferation is not an issue of current concern in our relations. Pakistan's commitment to nonproliferation of [weapons of mass destruction], including nuclear weapons, technology, materials, etc., is beyond question," Waseem wrote.

Israeli officials have warned of an "Arab arms race" fueled by Iran's nuclear programmes, which could have serious strategic consequences for the Jewish state.

US officials have played down the revelations, saying stories of a Pakistani-Saudi nuclear alliance were more than a decade old.

"We've seen the allegation, but we have not seen any information to substantiate what would seem to us to be rather bald assertions" of a nuclear pact, said State Department spokesman Adam Ereli.

"We are confident that Pakistan clearly understands our concerns regarding proliferation of nuclear technology. And we would also note that Saudi Arabia is a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, under which it has agreed not to obtain nuclear weapons," he said.

A second US government official with access to intelligence information discounted the Saudi-Pakistani nuclear link as well.

"There have been rumours along these lines for years. But we don't have information to suggest that there is an agreement to that effect," the official said, adding it is possible that the two governments have discussed nuclear cooperation.

2) Indian Express/PTI Thurs Oct23, 2003 Pak, Saudi ink secret nuclear deal: Report

WASHINGTON, OCTOBER 22 Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have concluded a secret agreement on nuclear cooperation that will provide the Saudis with nuclear weapons technology in exchange for cheap oil, the Washington Times reported today quoting a "ranking Pakistani insider".

The disclosure of the Saudi-Pakistani deal came at the end of a 26-hour visit to Islamabad last weekend by Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, who flew in with a 200-strong delegation including Foreign Minister Saud al Faisal and several Cabinet ministers, the Times said in a dispatch from Islamabad. Both, Pakistan and the Arabian kingdom have denied the deal.

"The denials are as predicted,"the dispatch written by roving editor Arnaud de Borchgrave said claiming that his source "has proved reliable for more than a decade" and that "future events will prove that Pakistan has agreed to provide Saudi Arabia with the where withal for a nuclear deterrent".

"Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia," said the Pakistani source, "see a world that is moving from non-proliferation to proliferation of nuclear weapons". Pakistan, said the paper, is concerned about the recent arms agreement between India and Israel. It is to
counter what the Pakistani and Saudi rulers regard as multiple regional threats that the two countries have decided to quietly move ahead with an exchange of free or cheap Saudi oil for Pakistani nuclear know how, the Times reported.

Offering another reason for the deal, the paper said, "the Saudi rulers, who are Sunni, are believed to have concluded that nothing would deter the Shia Muslims in Iran from continuing their quest for a nuclear weapons capability".

The Saudi are still chafing over a closed but later well-publicised meeting of the US Defence policy board last year in which an American expert had suggested why and how the US should seize and occupy oil fields in Saudi Arabia's eastern province.

US officials reacted sharply to the Times report saying they were confident that Pakistan understood their concerns on proliferation of nuclear technology and that Riyadh was party to NPT and has agreed not to obtain nuclear weapons.

Prince Abdullah reportedly sees Saudi oil reserves, the wordless largest, as becoming increasingly vulnerable over the next 10 years. By mutual agreement, US forces withdrew from Saudi Arabia earlier this year to relocate across the borer in Qatar.

3) VoA 22 Oct Saudi Arabia, Pakistan to Cooperate on Nuclear Technology, says Newspaper Report
VOA News 22 Oct 2003

The U.S. State Department says it has no information to support a U.S. media report that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have agreed to cooperate on nuclear weapons technology.

A State Department spokesman, Adam Ereli, said the report made what he called "rather bald assertions."

He said Washington is confident Pakistan understands U.S. concerns on nuclear technology proliferation, adding Saudi Arabia adheres to an international treaty under which it has agreed not to obtain nuclear weapons.

The Washington Times newspaper report appeared Wednesday. It said Pakistan and Saudi Arabia made a secret agreement on nuclear cooperation that will give the Saudis nuclear weapons technology in exchange for cheap oil. The paper attributed the information to what it called a "ranking Pakistani insider."

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz was quoted by Saudi newspaper Okaz Tuesday as saying Riyadh and Islamabad made no military agreements during a recent visit to Islamabad by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz.

4) Indian Express Oct 23 Indians nukes likely to spark arms race: US body
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World
Thursday, October 23, 2003

Washington, October 23:India has become "virtually self-sufficient" in its missile programme enabling it to avoid international export control regime and difficulties arising out of foreign involvement in its programme, a US Congressional body has said.

Ever since the 1998 Pokharan detonations, India's decision making is a key factor in regional stability in South Asia, the congressional Research Services (CRS) said in a report. The CRS, which advises the Congress, attributes this self-sufficiency to the fact that "most likely in anticipation of the missile technology control regime, India went on what was described by some analysts as a shopping spree for gyroscopes, accelerometers, and motion simulators from suppliers in the US, Germany, France and Sweden'.

"India then reverse-engineered these high quality foreign missile components, and that was a key factor in her subsequent self-sufficiency."

On the assumption that American interests require a balance between India and Pakistan and that India should not compare itself with China, CRS says that ever since the 1998 nuclear tests in South Asia, it has appeared that India's decision-making is a key factor in shaping regional stability.

According to the Pentagon, "India's development of medium-range ballistic missiles is motivated by its desire to be recognised as a great power and strategic competitor with China."

China, says CRS, seems content with its existing deterrent against India, and Pakistan's limited resources appear to constrain its ability to initiate an Indo-Pak arms race. "Thus, a key variable in the future evolution of South Asian nuclear proliferation is India's strategic intention in relation to China."

One of the "more dangerous scenarios," says CRS, is one in which India actively seeks to gain nuclear parity with China by building a larger nuclear arsenal and long-range delivery force.

In the middle term, the deployment of Agni missiles capable of striking China's eastern population centres could spur Beijing to re-target more nuclear forces to the south and likewise move Islamabad to seek some form of parity in this arena, "thus potentially setting in motion a full-blown arms race on the Asian sub-continent", the report says.

Moreover, it says, "some observers" suggest that US sales of theatre missile defence systems in Asia Ñ or the deployment of a national system covering US territory Ñ could spur further ballistic missile proliferation in South Asia.

In contrast to the "proliferation pessimism" expressed by some US government officials, especially those in the State Department, says CRS, "Bush administration officials have been more muted in their criticism of South Asian strategic arsenals."

Some experts believe, says CRS, that India acquired Sukhoi-30MKI aircraft from Russia, with a reported capacity to carry an 8,000 kg payload, and with a normal range of 3,200 km and an air-to-air refueling range of about 7,000 km, gives India a nuclear deep strike capability. "Some experts believe that India acquired the Sukhoi to counter China's deep-strike capability", the report observes.

While not a weapon or delivery system, says CRS, India's satellites contribute to its strategic capabilities by providing a strategic early warning capability that could help ensure the survivability of its nuclear forces and also help improve India's military command, control, communication and intelligence capacities.

Agni III, says CRS, is believed to have a range of 5,000 km (a range of approximately 4,000 km would be required for a missile to reach Beijing from India) and "is presently assessed to be under development". Without identifying them, CRS says, "Senior Indian defence officials reportedly claim that the Agni III is a 'China-specific' missile and not intended for use against Pakistan."

5) India, Pakistan have over 80 nuclear weapons: US report
S Rajagopalan, Washington, October 23

India and Pakistan are estimated to have, between them, anything from 54 to 83 nuclear weapons of varying yields, according to a new report presented to the US Congress.

The report, prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), says the 'slow-speed arms race' that seems underway in the subcontinent is 'a potentially major threat to regional stability and to key US foreign policy goals'.

Citing estimates by analysts, the report puts the number of nukes in India's arsenal, as of 2002, at 30 to 35, with yields varying between 5 and 25 kilotons (Kt). The yields are lower than India's claim that it had detonated a nuclear device with a 43 Kt yield on May 11, 1998.

'These devices are likely configured as aerial bombs or missile warheads,' says the report, titled 'Missile Proliferation and the Strategic Balance in South Asia'.

While a precise breakdown of the number of bombs versus missile warheads is unknown, it quotes an unnamed Pakistani military official as claiming that the majority of Indian nuclear weapons are configured as aerial bombs.

The CRS says that India is also suspected of having successfully flight tested an Agni II missile (range 3,000-3,500 km), carrying a nuclear warhead assembly without its plutonium core in 1999 and again in 2001.

While such tests are considered crucial for warhead development by some experts, some nuclear scientists believe that additional flight testing to adequately test the weapon's fuze and trigger will be required before India could deploy nuclear-armed missiles operationally.

As for Pakistan's nukes, the CRS cites analysts to put the number at 24 to 48, configured as both aerial bombs and missile warheads. The Pakistani numbers may be higher than that of India, but their yields are much lower. The yields are put at 9 to 12 Kit and 4 to 6 Kit. 'It is possible that Pakistan has higher yield weapons that have not been tested.'

The most likely aircraft that Pakistan may use to deliver nuclear weapons are the F-16 fighters obtained from the US in the 1980s. Islamabad received 28 F-16 A (single seat) and 12 F-16 B (two seat) fighters.

The CRS report also notes that India's satellites could also contribute to its strategic capabilities. It says the Technology Experiment Satellite, with an optical resolution capacity of one meter, provides India with 'a strategic early warning capability that could help ensure the survivability of its nuclear forces'.